Gallup: McCain Leads After Biden Pick

While all the focus is on the convention in Denver, the Gallup Poll's daily national tracking number came out today, and it's John McCain, not Barack Obama, who has a two percentage-point lead.

This poll was taken during the first three days after the selection of Joe Biden as the Democratic vice presidential candidate. It's a national poll, so it's value is limited at best. But it is the first time Gallup has McCain on top.

An analysis of historical election poll trends by Gallup Poll Managing Editor Jeff Jones shows that recent presidential campaigns have enjoyed a small (though short-lived) bounce from the running mate announcement. This includes a four percentage point bounce for John Kerry in 2004 after selecting John Edwards, a 5-point bounce for Al Gore in 2000 with his announcement of Joe Lieberman, and a 3-point bounce for George W. Bush in 2000 upon choosing Dick Cheney. Bob Dole received an extraordinary 9-point bounce in 1996 after bringing Jack Kemp onto his ticket.

All of these bounces occurred before the respective party's convention began, and in most cases the candidates received an additional boost in the polls upon completion of the convention. Thus, any increase in Obama's support in the coming days would seem to be more the result of the star-studded and well publicized Democratic national convention than the apparently lackluster Biden selection.