Republicans Appear Poised to Win Big on Tuesday

The final USA Today/Gallup measure of Americans' voting intentions for Congress shows Republicans continuing to hold a substantial lead over Democrats among likely voters, a lead large enough to suggest that regardless of turnout, the Republicans will win more than the 40 seats needed to give them the majority in the U.S. House.

The results are from Gallup's Oct. 28-31 survey of 1,539 likely voters. It finds 52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot -- depending on turnout assumptions. Gallup's analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided.

Republicans' 15-point lead among likely voters contrasts with their 4-point lead, 48% to 44%, among registered voters, highlighting the importance of higher GOP turnout to the election outcome. This wide difference between the GOP's margin among registered voters and its margin among likely voters is similar to the 2002 midterms, in which Democrats led by 5 points among all registered voters in Gallup's final pre-election poll, while Republicans led by 6 points among likely voters -- an 11-point gain.

These final estimates of the vote among registered and likely voters are consistent with Gallup polling since Sept. 23. Republicans have led by an average of 4 points among registered voters and by 16 points among a low-turnout estimate of likely voters since that time. Thus, while voter preferences could change in the final two days, perhaps resulting from Democrats' final push to motivate their base to turn out, voter preferences appear to be quite settled in this final post-Labor Day phase of the campaign.

Rasmussen, Gallup Show McCain Gaining as Polls Tighten

Both Rasmussen Reports and Gallup have reported in the past 24 hours tighter national daily tracking polls.

This morning, Rasmussen Reports said that Sen. Barack Obama's national lead is down to three percentage points, 50 percent to 47 percent.

It is the first time in more than a month that Sen. John McCain has been so close.

Prior to today’s update, Obama had been ahead by four-to-eight points every single day for 33 straight days. During that 33-day stretch, Obama’s voter support had stayed between 50% and 52% every day while McCain was in the 44% to 46% range. It will take another day or so to determine whether today’s numbers reflect a lasting change or statistical noise. Two of the last three nights of polling show a closer race than was found in the previous month.

Of course, the problem for McCain is that it is not a national race, rather 51 individual contests for electoral votes. Rasmussen says Obama's electoral lead, when leaning states are included, is 313-174. Pure toss-up states account for the other 51 electoral votes. That is well above the 270 he needs to become the next president of the United States.

Gallup reported yesterday that Obama had a two percentage-point lead, 49-47, among likely voters using its traditional model. Gallup's "traditional" likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections.

In other polls released yesterday, GWU/Battleground had Obama up nationally by three percentage points, 49-46; Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby had Obama up by five percentage points, 49-44; and Diego/Hothline had Obama up by seven percentage points, 49-42.

McCain Maintains Slight Lead in Daily Tracking Polls

Some of today's daily tracking polls are available. Sen. John McCain is holding on to his slight lead.

Gallup has McCain up 48 percent to 44 percent. This is a one-percentage-point drop from the past two days.

These results, based on Sept. 8-10 polling, show McCain continuing to ride his post-convention bounce. He has held a statistically significant lead over Obama in each of the last four three-day rolling averages.

In addition, since Sept. 5 -- the first night after the Republican National Convention -- he has outpolled Obama in each of the last six individual night's polling. That consistent pattern in the night-to-night data suggests that McCain has a stable lead for now.

This is McCain's best performance since late April and early May, when he was ahead of Obama in eight consecutive Gallup Poll Daily tracking reports, which included a campaign-best six percentage point lead. In March, shortly after he clinched the Republican Party's presidential nomination, McCain was ahead of Obama in 19 consecutive Gallup Poll Daily tracking reports.

The Rasmussen Reports sees a dead heat, with Obama and McCain pulling in 46 percent of the vote. When "leaners" are included, both candidates have 48 percent.

Data released last night shows John McCain up by two in New Mexico, up by double digits in North Dakota, and up by an overwhelming margin in his running mate’s home state of Alaska. The Palin surge in Alaska has even helped pull embattled Senator Ted Stevens back to a competitive position in his bid for re-election. Presidential polling has also been released this week for Colorado, Florida, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Tonight, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, new polling will be released for Michigan, Idaho, and Wyoming.

Real Clear Politics' average of polls has McCain up by 2.5 percentage points today.

Gallup Shows McCain Now Up By 15 With Independents

Gallup announced today that Sen. John McCain is surging with independents, and now has a 15-percentage-point lead in that demographic.

The surge in political independents who favor McCain for president marks the first time since Gallup began tracking voters' general-election preferences in March that a majority of independents have sided with either of the two major-party candidates. Prior to now, McCain had received no better than 48% of the independent vote and Obama no better than 46%, making the race for the political middle highly competitive.

The poll shows McCain with a 52-to-37 preference among independents who are registered voters.

The events on the Republican stage in St. Paul, Minn., from Sept. 2-4 appear to have provided two important boosts to the McCain-Palin ticket.

First, according to the latest USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted Sept. 5-7, McCain has energized his Republican base and, as a result, has potentially strengthened his positioning on Election Day with "likely voters." Second, as the Gallup Poll Daily trends discussed here show, voter movement toward McCain since the Republican convention occurred mainly with independents, thus broadening McCain's appeal beyond the party.

Republicans had already lined up for McCain before the convention started. Now, they are excited, and are joined by more independents than at any other time in the campaign. Those gains may not last -- "bounces" rarely do -- but they enable McCain to launch the next phase of the campaign with the knowledge of what his winning coalition might look like.

McCain-Palin Team Finds Its Poll Bounce

There is growing evidence of a post-convention bounce in the national polls for the Republican presidential ticket of Sen. John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin. A number of recent polls show them with a lead over Democrats Sens. Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll today has McCain with a 5-percentage-point lead.

John McCain’s support among registered voters increased six percentage points from immediately before the GOP convention to immediately after. That convention bounce leaves him with a five-point lead over Barack Obama in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update, 49% to 44%.

Rasmussen Reports Daily Tracking Poll today has McCain edging to a statistically insignificant one-point lead over Obama.

In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted after the Republican National Convention, McCain attracts 47% of the vote while Obama earns 46%. When "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 48% and Obama 47%.

Last Tuesday, Obama’s bounce peaked with the Democrat enjoying a six-percentage point advantage. Before the two conventions were held, Obama had consistently held a one or two point lead over McCain for most of August.

Real Clear Politics' average of polls has McCain up by 3.2 percentage points.

In a poll released yesterday, self-described likely voters told CBS/Gallup that they favored McCain 54 percent to 44 percent.

Most pollsters attributed McCain's gains to a traditional post-convention bump in popularity, as well as Palin's performance in her speech at the convention, which was well received by social conservatives and evangelicals.

Gallup: McCain Leads After Biden Pick

While all the focus is on the convention in Denver, the Gallup Poll's daily national tracking number came out today, and it's John McCain, not Barack Obama, who has a two percentage-point lead.

This poll was taken during the first three days after the selection of Joe Biden as the Democratic vice presidential candidate. It's a national poll, so it's value is limited at best. But it is the first time Gallup has McCain on top.

An analysis of historical election poll trends by Gallup Poll Managing Editor Jeff Jones shows that recent presidential campaigns have enjoyed a small (though short-lived) bounce from the running mate announcement. This includes a four percentage point bounce for John Kerry in 2004 after selecting John Edwards, a 5-point bounce for Al Gore in 2000 with his announcement of Joe Lieberman, and a 3-point bounce for George W. Bush in 2000 upon choosing Dick Cheney. Bob Dole received an extraordinary 9-point bounce in 1996 after bringing Jack Kemp onto his ticket.

All of these bounces occurred before the respective party's convention began, and in most cases the candidates received an additional boost in the polls upon completion of the convention. Thus, any increase in Obama's support in the coming days would seem to be more the result of the star-studded and well publicized Democratic national convention than the apparently lackluster Biden selection.