Republicans Appear Poised to Win Big on Tuesday

The final USA Today/Gallup measure of Americans' voting intentions for Congress shows Republicans continuing to hold a substantial lead over Democrats among likely voters, a lead large enough to suggest that regardless of turnout, the Republicans will win more than the 40 seats needed to give them the majority in the U.S. House.

The results are from Gallup's Oct. 28-31 survey of 1,539 likely voters. It finds 52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the Republican candidate and 40% to 42% for the Democratic candidate on the national generic ballot -- depending on turnout assumptions. Gallup's analysis of several indicators of voter turnout from the weekend poll suggests turnout will be slightly higher than in recent years, at 45%. This would give the Republicans a 55% to 40% lead on the generic ballot, with 5% undecided.

Republicans' 15-point lead among likely voters contrasts with their 4-point lead, 48% to 44%, among registered voters, highlighting the importance of higher GOP turnout to the election outcome. This wide difference between the GOP's margin among registered voters and its margin among likely voters is similar to the 2002 midterms, in which Democrats led by 5 points among all registered voters in Gallup's final pre-election poll, while Republicans led by 6 points among likely voters -- an 11-point gain.

These final estimates of the vote among registered and likely voters are consistent with Gallup polling since Sept. 23. Republicans have led by an average of 4 points among registered voters and by 16 points among a low-turnout estimate of likely voters since that time. Thus, while voter preferences could change in the final two days, perhaps resulting from Democrats' final push to motivate their base to turn out, voter preferences appear to be quite settled in this final post-Labor Day phase of the campaign.

Monmouth University Poll: O’Donnell Cuts Coons' Edge to 10 Points

In the past two weeks, Republican Christine O’Donnell has narrowed Democrat Chris Coons’ lead in Delaware’s U.S. Senate race from 19 points to 10 points. The latest Monmouth University Poll finds Coons has the support of 51 percent of likely voters to 41 percent for O’Donnell. Two weeks ago, this race stood at 57 percent to 38 percent.

O’Donnell has actually pulled into a 49 percent to 43 percent lead in the southern part of the state (i.e. Kent and Sussex counties). Two weeks ago, this region of the state was divided at 47 percent for O’Donnell and 46 percent for Coons. The Democrat continues to hold a sizable advantage in New Castle County, but the current 56 percent to 36 percent margin is down from the 63 percent to 33 percent edge he held earlier this month.

O’Donnell has also made gains among independent voters, now leading Coons 47 percent to 42 percent among this voting bloc. Two weeks ago, she trailed in the independent vote by 51 percent to 41 percent.

“While Coons still has the advantage, it has to be uncomfortable knowing that O’Donnell was able to shave nine points off his lead in just two weeks. The interesting thing is that while her vote total has risen, the majority of Delaware voters still say she is unqualified for the post,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

The poll found that just 35 percent of likely voters in Delaware feel that Christine O’Donnell is qualified to be a U.S. senator, while 56 percent say she is unqualified. That contrasts with their opinion of Chris Coons, who 65 percent say is qualified for the U.S. Senate to 25 percent unqualified. These qualification results for O’Donnell and Coons are basically identical to the Monmouth University Poll results from two weeks ago.

However, O’Donnell has seen some improvement in voters’ opinion of her personally, while Coons’ rating has dropped. O’Donnell is now viewed favorably by 34 percent of the electorate and unfavorably by 51 percent. Two weeks ago, this stood at 31 percent favorable to 58 percent unfavorable. Coons has a 45 percent favorable to 39 percent unfavorable rating, compared to a 50 percent favorable to 33 percent unfavorable rating two weeks ago.

While the Senate election has experienced some movement, there has been little change in the race for Delaware’s at-large House seat. The poll finds Democrat John Carney holding a 51 percent to 44 percent lead over Republican Glen Urquhart in the race to fill the vacant House seat. That marks a slight narrowing of the gap from Carney’s 53 percent to 44 percent margin two weeks ago.

Delaware voters’ personal ratings for the two major party House candidates have remained fairly stable. Carney has a 46 percent favorable to 28 percent unfavorable rating, with 26 percent offering no opinion. Urquhart has a 38 percent favorable to 27 percent unfavorable rating, with 35 percent offering no opinion.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone with 1171 likely voters from Oct. 25 to 27, 2010. This sample has a margin of error of + 2.9 percent.

Rasmussen: 65 Percent of Likely Voters Favor Dumping Congress and Starting Over

Only 65 percent?

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 65% of Likely U.S. Voters say if they had the option next week, they would vote to get rid of the entire Congress and start all over again. Only 20% would opt to keep the entire Congress instead. Fifteen percent (15%) aren’t sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Of course, the Political Class strongly disagrees. While 84% of Mainstream voters would opt to get rid of the entire Congress, 64% of the Political Class would vote instead to keep them all.

Not surprisingly, 82% of Republicans and 78% of unaffiliateds say dump them all. Despite their party’s control of both the House and Senate, Democratic voters are fairly evenly divided: 44% say it’s better to keep the entire Congress, but 38% would prefer to give all the national legislators the heave-ho.

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of all voters have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party after its two years of controlling both the White House and Congress. But 53% view the Democrats unfavorably.

As for the party out of power but knocking on the door, just 29% view Republicans favorably, while 54% hold an unfavorable opinion of them.

Only 61% of Republicans offer a favorable opinion of the GOP, a figure perhaps reflective of the fact that most Republican voters believe their party leaders are out of touch with the base.

Seventy-six percent (76%) of Democrats have a favorable opinion of their party.

Among all voters, just three percent (3%) have a favorable opinion of both parties, while 18% view both unfavorably. Seventy-nine percent (79%) offer mixed reviews.

Poll: Republicans Want NPR Funding Cut; Democrats Say Keep It

This is a poll that was a waste of money. Did they expect any other result?

Most Republicans and a plurality of independents want the U.S. government to halt its financial contributions to embattled National Public Radio, while most Democrats support continued U.S. funding for NPR.

NPR’s controversial firing last week of news analyst Juan Williams re-ignited a long-time debate over whether U.S. government funds should be channeled to the non-profit radio service. A single-digit percentage of NPR funding comes from the U.S. government.

A nationwide Poll Position survey found that 45 percent of Americans favored continued U.S. government NPR funding, while 39 percent called for a halt to funding, with the remainder saying they had no opinion.

In partisan terms, Republicans favored ending U.S. funding 54-28 percent, while Democrats wanted the funding to continue 58-25 percent. NPR funding was favored by independents 49-38 percent.

Broken down by ages, the 18-29 group supported continued taxpayer subsidies 62-30 percent. The 30-44 group narrowly sided with halting the funding 42-39 percent, and older groups were almost evenly split on the idea.

Men backed NPR’s federal funding 50-40 percent, but women were not so decisive. They supported continued funding 40-37 percent, with another 23 percent undecided. Support hovered around 50 percent among all ethnic groups in the survey – whites, blacks, Latinos and others.

Was CNN Poll a Success or a Failure?

I always hated poll stories. To me, they were a poor substitute used by news organizations for genuine investigative reporting, which is much harder to do than to hire a pollster to ask silly questions. But they populate our media every week, giving some political junkie on either side of the aisle to parade around for a few days to say "Look, most people think like me!"

Today brings another example of a poll that for this news cycle will bring joy to the right, but is so meaningless its embarrassing.

CNN Opinion Research Poll interviewed 1,136 adult Americans, including an oversample of African-Americans, by telephone by Opinion Research Corporation on July 31-Aug. 3, 2009. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or
minus 3 percentage points.

On Question 3, pollsters asked, "Do you consider the first six months of the Obama administration to be a success or a failure?" Fifty-one percent said "success," 37 percent said "failure," 11 percent said "too soon to tell," and 1 percent had no opinion.

Then it compares a similar poll conducted in August 2001 about then-President George Bush. Fifty-six percent said "success," 32 percent said "failure," 7 percent said "too early to tell," and 5 percent said they had no opinion, and now the poll is being touted as proof of Obama's failure as a president.

Quickly, this was touted on Drudge as "CNN POLL: After 6 Months, More View Obama Presidency a 'Failure' Than Bush..." and on RealClearPolitics as "After 6 Months, More View Obama's Presidency as a 'Failure' Than Bush's."

The problem is, only 11 percent got it right this year, as compared to 7 percent in 2001.

You can't judge any president as a success or failure after six months. It's ludicrous. We like stories that nurture this instant gratification world. It's easy to put a number on a president's success or failure and say "Here it is!" But in reality, Obama's policies will only be judged for their effectiveness decades down the road.

Six months into Abraham Lincoln's first term, all 11 states in the South had seceded; the battle of Bull Run had been a disastrous loss, and the country was in the first days of its ugliest war. If we had polls back then, I would imagine his numbers would be worse. But I would also doubt anyone now thinks of Lincoln as a failure -- at any point in his life.

You simply cannot judge a president's success on only six months of work. Sometimes a president's impact can only be seen through the light of history. Heck, even Nixon is getting kudos for some of his accomplishments 40 years after the fact.

Instead of spending the money on a poll, CNN should do some of the hard work no one else seems to want to do. A start could be actually getting a few reporters to read through the thousands of pages in the various health-care bills, and get insurance and health experts together to analyze them. Then report on what each bill would really do to Americans. Heck, that's more than our congressmen are doing. It's harder work, but it's better journalism.

Obama's Lead Grows Among Many Polls

FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver report on today's polling numbers suggest it's time for Sen. John McCain to throw in the towel.

We already discussed the Big Ten and Quinnipiac polls, which are exceptionally strong for Obama across the board. But those aren't the only places where he's putting up some intimidating numbers. National Journal and SurveyUSA join Big Ten and Quinnipiac in giving Obama a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania, as does the Morning Call tracker. The Schroth Eldon & Associates poll for the Miami Herald and St. Pete Times in Florida, which has a fairly good reputation, puts him ahead by 7 in the Sunshine State. SurveyUSA now gives him a lead in Indiana, joining PPP and Big Ten; Indiana has turned blue on our map.

Obama even leads in Montana, a state which his campaign has never disengaged from, according to an MSU-Billings poll. Importantly, the MSU poll mentioned Ron Paul by name, who is on the ballot in Montana. He drew 4 percent of the vote, the precise difference between Obama and McCain. Furthermore, Obama's strong results in deep red states like Montana and Indiana lead our model to conclude that North Dakota may in fact be in play, as well as two of Nebraska's three congressional districts. If the election were held today, the Obama campaign might very well sweep every state on their target list.

... There is now no perceptible rebound for John McCain; in fact, the race may still be trending toward Obama, although the safer assumption is that it's flat. Meanwhile, Obama's electoral position appears as strong as ever. John McCain's chances of winning the election have dwindled to 3.7%, down from 6.5% yesterday.

FiveThirtyEight predicts 375 electoral votes for Obama.

Rasmussen Reports said today that Obama has increased his national polling numbers to about 52 percent. Rasmussen Markets data shows Obama with an 86.7% chance of winning in November.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama attracting 52% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. That seven-point lead is Obama’s largest in nearly two weeks. This is also the first time since October 11 that the Democratic candidate has reached the 52% level of support, his highest total of the year.

... As a result, Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 286-174. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House.

Gallup Poll Daily tracking shows Obama running ahead of McCain among likely voters --50 percent to 46 percent using the "traditional" model Gallup has employed in past elections, and 51 percent to 45 percent using an "expanded" model that takes into account possibly greater turnout by new or infrequent voters.

Zogby International's electoral map is a sea of blue, giving Obama 273 electoral votes.

Democrat Barack Obama has slowly built a 12-point lead over Republican John McCain, consolidating support among young voters, Hispanics, and independent voters while McCain's support, even among his Republican base, is fading heading down the stretch, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll shows.

John Zogby said on his web site: "Obama now has a huge lead among young voters, independents, and Hispanic voters. It's obviously not over. Frankly, this could tighten up and then loosen up again before Election Day. We saw movement on Election Day in New Hampshire, but at least for now, Obama has a very big lead. In the absence of news, McCain is not connecting. He seemed to be connecting during and immediately after the last debate, but got lost in issues that are not on people's minds. At some point, there are some issues that just overwhelm, and McCain has been particularly weak on the economy. He misstated the problem, confused his position, acted in a frantic way, and then looked like he wanted to run away from it. Meanwhile, Obama has been cool and confident, which worked for FDR in 1932 and worked for Ronald Reagan in 1980."

"I am very comfortable with our sample, especially given our track record in the last three presidential elections. Look at other polls and ask - Do they have enough college educated respondents? Enough Hispanics? Enough young voters? We do. And we have more Republicans in our sample than anyone else."

Zogby: Obama Winning in Blowout

Pollster John Zogby has this to say today about his projection that Sen. Barack Obama will win in a landslide.

“Three big days for Obama. Anything can happen, but time is running short for McCain. These numbers, if they hold, are blowout numbers. They fit the 1980 model with Reagan's victory over Carter -- but they are happening 12 days before Reagan blasted ahead. If Obama wins like this we can be talking not only victory but realignment: he leads by 27 points among Independents, 27 points among those who have already voted, 16 among newly registered voters, 31 among Hispanics, 93%-2% among African Americans, 16 among women, 27 among those 18-29, 5 among 30-49 year olds, 8 among 50-64s, 4 among those over 65, 25 among Moderates, and 12 among Catholics (which is better than Bill Clinton's 10-point victory among Catholics in 1996). He leads with men by 2 points, and is down among whites by only 6 points, down 2 in armed forces households, 3 among investors, and is tied among NASCAR fans.”

Here is his survey methodology.

The Associated Press released its own poll today that showed a tighter race.

The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.

Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had surged to a seven-point lead over McCain, lifted by voters who thought the Democrat was better suited to lead the nation through its sudden economic crisis.

The contest is still volatile, and the split among voters is apparent less than two weeks before Election Day.

"I trust McCain more, and I do feel that he has more experience in government than Obama. I don't think Obama has been around long enough," said Angela Decker, 44, of La Porte, Ind.

But Karen Judd, 58, of Middleton, Wis., said, "Obama certainly has sufficient qualifications." She said any positive feelings about McCain evaporated with "the outright lying" in TV ads and his choice of running mate Sarah Palin, who "doesn't have the correct skills."

Other polls among likely voters have Obama up anywhere from nine to 14 percentage points.

FiveThirtyEight.com: Drudge Poll Report Unreliable

Matt Drudge has been heavily promoting a poll on the Drudge Report that shows the presidential campaign is back to a two-point difference between Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama. But Nate Silver, writing for FiveThirtyEight.com, has noted in his blog that the poll is old and unreliable.

You may never have heard of the AP-Yahoo poll before. This is for good reason, since a look at the fine print reveals that it's not really intended for its horse race numbers (the AP uses a separate agency, GfK, for those).

For one thing, the poll is not timely. It entered the field on October 3 -- two weeks ago -- and left the field on October 13, which was this Monday.

For another thing, it's an internet-based poll: The survey was conducted using the web-enabled KnowledgePanelSM, a probability-based Panel designed to be representative of the U.S. population. Initially, participants are chosen scientifically by a random selection of telephone numbers. Persons in selected households are then invited by telephone to participate in the webenabled KnowledgePanelSM. For those who agree to participate, but do not already have Internet access, Knowledge Networks provides at no cost an Internet appliance and Internet service connection. People who already have computers and Internet service are permitted to participate using their own equipment. Panelists then receive unique log-in information for accessing surveys online, and then are sent emails three to four times a month inviting them to participate in research.

For a third thing, it has no likely voter screen, and the horse race question does not even appear to have a registered voter screen ... it's a poll of all adults.

What is the Bradley Effect?

The hottest item on the cable news channels the past 24 hours? The economy? Nope. The Tampa Bay Rays? No way. It's the Bradley effect.

Pollsters and pundits will tell you that the Bradley effect is when voters tell pollsters they'll vote for the black candidate but actually vote for the white candidate.

Tom Bradley, the African-American mayor of Los Angeles in 1982, ran for governor of California. Weeks before the election, newspapers were reporting that he held a double-digit lead in the race. But in the end, he lost a close election to George Deukmejian, who was the white candidate.

NPR's Mara Liasson has a commentary on the subject:

Seven years later, something similar happened to Doug Wilder in his race for governor of Virginia. Public polls showed him up by 9 to 10 points. And he ended up winning — but only by a few thousand votes.

Wilder says that now the U.S. is an "emerging, evolutionary stage" when it comes to race.

"I like to remind people, however, that if the Wilder effect plays in this election, it'll be good because I won," he says.

A lot has changed since then.

In 2006, Harold Ford — an African-American running for a U.S. Senate seat representing Tennessee — received as many votes as pre-election polls suggested he would. So did Ron Kirk, the black mayor of Dallas, when he ran for the Senate in Texas in 2002.

During this year's Democratic primaries, University of Washington social psychologist Tony Greenwald did a study to see if there was a Bradley or Wilder effect at work in the contest between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

What he found was surprising. In a few states — California, Rhode Island and New Hampshire — Obama did worse than polls predicted. But in 12 state primaries, he actually did better.

Those were states that have a relatively high black population, Greenwald says. He says there is a reverse Bradley effect.

"What we think is going on there is that people who get the call to participate in the poll, they're asked to say if it's Obama or Clinton," Greenwald says. "They give an answer that's easier to give in their region, and in that region it's easier to say that you favor the white candidate than that you favor the black candidate."

Liasson concludes:

Even so, Ron Walters says race is playing a role in the campaign.

"The presidency is almost an anthropological leadership position. ... It represents the head of a tribe for many people," Walters says. "They want a president to be like them, look like them, etc. And to that extent, there's a lot of emotional content about who the president of the United States is. … Barack Obama — part of the politics of this election is that he's been trying to overcome that cultural barrier."

The consensus seems to be that while there are people who will not vote for Obama because he's black, there are probably a lot fewer of them who are willing to lie about it to pollsters.

Daily Tracking Polls: Obama Lead Is Solid

Right now, it's all Obama. There is no good news for Sen. John McCain.

Rasmussen Markets data shows on Sunday that Sen. Barack Obama has a 77.1 percent chance of winning in November. Rasmussen Reports has Obama winning the Electoral College, 300-174. Toss-up states are not included, but most lean toward Obama in recent polling.

Real Clear Politics shows Obama up 277-158, but again, most of the toss-ups are pushing toward Obama.

The Zogby Electoral Map is more generous to McCain, giving Obama a lead of only 234-179. It also has McCain ahead in its recent polling in Pennsylvania and Florida, which other pollsters do not.

Rasmussen: Obama 300, McCain 174

Rasmussen Reports projection released this afternoon shows Sen. Barack Obama with a lead of 300-174 electoral votes when leaners are included in the count.

This is the first polling that shows Obama earning 300 electoral votes.

New state polling from Oregon has moved that state from "Leans Democratic" to "Likely Democratic" in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. With this change, Obama leads in states with 255 Electoral College votes while McCain is ahead in states with 163 Electoral College votes. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 300, McCain 174.

Currently, states with 63 Electoral College votes are leaning slightly in one way or the other. Five states with a total of 64 votes -- North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, and Virginia -- are pure toss-ups.

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com has a bleaker picture for Sen. John McCain.

With 25 days to go until the election, Barack Obama is presently at his all-time highs in four of the six national tracking polls (Research 2000, Battleground, Hotline and Zogby) and is just one point off his high in Gallup. He has emerged with clear leads in both Florida and Ohio, where there are several polls out today. He is blowing McCain out in most polls of Pennsylvania and Michigan, and is making states like West Virgina and Georgia competitive.

There's just nothing in there for McCain to hang his hat on. Even a pollster like Strategic Vision, which has generally had a Republican lean this cycle, now has Florida and Ohio going against them (Florida in a big way). Well, OK, maybe they'll hold on to Indiana, although both campaigns' internals likely have the state closer than Rasmussen does.

McCain is getting some criticism for campaigning in Iowa, and for sending Sarah Palin out to West Virginia, but the truth is that their electoral hand is so poor right now that it doesn't much matter in which states they're deciding to bide their time. Remember, any world in which McCain has a chance to win on Election Day is a world that looks very different from this one -- some significant event will have to have occurred to fundamentally change the momentum of the race. We don't know which states might be affected disproportionately by such an event, and so a lot of states are conceivably worth attacking or defending, any of which could potentially become more important in the face of unknown unknowns.

Biden Clear Winner in Early Polls After Debate

Sen. Joe Biden scored well in overnight polling after his vice-presidential debate with Gov. Sarah Palin, providing more bad news for the Republican ticket that has been faltering in the past two weeks.

An unscientific poll on AOL shows Biden winning 48 percent to 45 percent. MSNBC's unscientific poll had Biden winning 78.6 percent to 18.9 percent, which is not surprising given the liberal demographics of the network's viewers. But what was more eye-catching is that FOX News' unscientific poll has Biden up 61-39.

Other polls included the CNN/Opinion Research poll, which has Biden up 51-36, and CBS, who has Biden winning 46-21.

In the CBS poll, of the uncommitted voters, 18 percent now say they will vote Obama/Biden, while 10 percent now say McCain/Palin.

The CNN poll concluded that the results of the debate cannot be welcome news for the McCain-Palin campaign.

Poll Results From First Debate Don't Matter Much

So, there was the first formal debate between the presidential candidates and the general consensus is that the Democrat won.

CNN reported that Newsweek's post-debate poll showed 61 percent of respondents said the Democrat won, 19 percent said the Republican won and 16 percent said they were undecided.

The poll also found 56 percent said the Democrat candidate did better than expected in the debate while 11 percent said the same for the Republican.

In the Los Angeles Times poll, 54 percent of 725 respondents surveyed declared the Democrat senator the winner of the debate, compared with 15 percent who said the Republican won.

An ABC News poll found that those who watched the first debate between the candidates said the Democrat won by 45 percent to 38 percent.

The problem with these polls? They're all from 2004. Bush had a terrible night by all accounts. But in the end, it did not matter as he won the only poll that counts: the one that you and I participate in November.

Rasmussen: Obama Up 255-247 in Electoral College

Rasmussen Reports released an update of its Electoral College map. It gives Sen. Barack Obama a slight edge, but does not put him over the magic number of 270.

New state polling from North Carolina has moved that state from from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. With this change, Obama still leads in states with 193 Electoral College votes while McCain is ahead in states with 174 Electoral College votes. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 255, McCain 247.

Currently, states with 124 Electoral College votes are leaning slightly in one way or the other. Five states with a total of 36 votes -- New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Virginia -- are pure toss-ups.

Polls Say Public Reaction is Mixed to McCain's Campaign Suspension

FiveThirtyEight.com is reporting this morning that polls suggest that the public is responding poorly to Sen. John McCain's suspension of his campaign to work on the financial crisis. In fact, Sen. Barack Obama has increased his growing lead.

The web site reports that two polls that were doing field work yesterday show gains for Obama:

The Research 2000 poll has Obama jumping from +4 to +6, on the strength of a +7 in the daily sample conducted yesterday. And Rasmussen Tracking has him moving from a +2 to a +3, his largest lead over McCain since 9/6.

But there was some good news for McCain. Hotline has Obama at a +4, down from a +6 yesterday. Battleground, which has a strong (3-4 point) Republican lean, has him at -1, one point better than yesterday.

Obama Building Lead in Polls During Wall Street Crisis

There's nothing like bad economic news to help out the opposition party. In this case, Sen. Barack Obama has regained momentum (and the lead) in a variety of polls with less than six weeks from the presidential election.

For instance, an ABC News/Washington Post national poll released yesterday, has Obama with a 52-43 percentage-point lead among likely voters over Sen. John McCain.

More voters trust Obama to deal with the economy, and he currently has a big edge as the candidate who is more in tune with the economic problems Americans now face. He also has a double-digit advantage on handling the current problems on Wall Street, and as a result, there has been a rise in his overall support.

The McCain campaign pollsters told reporters on a quickly arranged conference call that the Post poll is an "outlier" not representative of other surveys and that they believe the national race is still neck and neck.

That could be true, but there are other signs that McCain is in deep trouble. And if the campaign truly believes this race is still neck and neck, then the Republicans have already lost. Obama has started to build substantial leads in a more significant polls from individual battleground states.

In Iowa (seven electoral votes), the Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co.’s poll, conducted from Sept. 8 to Sept. 10, showed Obama leading McCain by 12 percentage points (52 to 40) among the registered voters in Iowa. Marist has Obama leading by 10 in that state.

As of today, The InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position Survey in Colorado (nine electoral votes) has Obama leading by nine percentage points, (50 to 41). Yesterday, that same polling organization had Obama and McCain tied in Ohio (20 electoral votes.) That state had been leaning toward McCain.

In Florida, which has been seen as close but likely a McCain state, a NBC/Mason-Dixon Poll released yesterday has Obama up by two percentage points.

In Virginia, a traditionally red state, CNN reported today that McCain's advantage is slipping in that state, which has 13 electoral votes.

The latest round of polls could be a clear warning sign for McCain six weeks before Election Day that the Republican presidential nominee still has work to do to lock down certain states that previous GOP nominees had to spend little time or effort doing so.

In the latest poll of polls, the Arizona senator only holds a 1 point lead over Barack Obama (47-46 percent) while 7 percent remain undecided. The poll of polls is an average of three recent surveys of the state.

All this has produced a shift in Obama's strategy, Andrea D. Murphy of Forbes reports.

With less than 6 weeks until the general election, the Obama campaign’s 50 state strategy appears to have ended. The campaign has pulled out of Alaska and North Dakota, and it is poised to close offices in Georgia and Montana, states that Democrats feel they cannot win. George W. Bush won all four states, and their combined 24 electoral college votes, by a wide margin in 2004.

The Obama campaign is focusing on swing states. Today, Obama is in Florida while running mate Joe Biden is set to deliver a speech on foreign policy in Ohio. McCain currently leads in both states by 2 percentage points. The Republican team is in New York City, where McCain and Sarah Palin are meeting with Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili and Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko.

None of this is good news for McCain. The Republicans had some strong momentum on their side after the convention. But the relentless attacks on Gov. Sarah Palin and the distressing news from Wall Street are now starting to take their toll. The upcoming debate may be McCain's best shot at stopping the bleeding, as the nation watches the candidates together, it's his best opportunity for him to demonstrate how his leadership is best for America as the country fights through the current economic crisis. If he falters in the debate, the poll numbers are going to drop even farther, and there would be little time to make up ground.

Rasmussen's Electoral Map Almost Identical to 2004

While most of the media is focusing on the national daily tracking polls, which show a slight or statistically insignificant lead for Sen. John McCain, Rasmussen Reports' electoral map paints a picture of a race that is almost identical to 2004.

According to Rasmussen's polling, Sen. Barack Obama has maintain a lead in every state that Sen. John Kerry won in 2004. It also lists only Iowa as a state that is leaning Democrat this time around, and that is based on a poll that was conducted in August before the conventions. In that poll, Obama had a five-percentage-point advantage. Iowa has seven electoral votes.

Rasmussen says McCain is maintaining an edge in most of the states that were won by President George Bush.

McCain now leads in states with 200 Electoral College votes while Obama is ahead in states with 193 Electoral College votes. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 259, McCain 247.

Currently, states with 124 Electoral College votes are leaning slightly in one way or the other. Four states with a total of 32 votes -- Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Virginia -- are pure toss-ups.

Those four states were won by Bush.

McCain Maintains Slight Lead in Daily Tracking Polls

Some of today's daily tracking polls are available. Sen. John McCain is holding on to his slight lead.

Gallup has McCain up 48 percent to 44 percent. This is a one-percentage-point drop from the past two days.

These results, based on Sept. 8-10 polling, show McCain continuing to ride his post-convention bounce. He has held a statistically significant lead over Obama in each of the last four three-day rolling averages.

In addition, since Sept. 5 -- the first night after the Republican National Convention -- he has outpolled Obama in each of the last six individual night's polling. That consistent pattern in the night-to-night data suggests that McCain has a stable lead for now.

This is McCain's best performance since late April and early May, when he was ahead of Obama in eight consecutive Gallup Poll Daily tracking reports, which included a campaign-best six percentage point lead. In March, shortly after he clinched the Republican Party's presidential nomination, McCain was ahead of Obama in 19 consecutive Gallup Poll Daily tracking reports.

The Rasmussen Reports sees a dead heat, with Obama and McCain pulling in 46 percent of the vote. When "leaners" are included, both candidates have 48 percent.

Data released last night shows John McCain up by two in New Mexico, up by double digits in North Dakota, and up by an overwhelming margin in his running mate’s home state of Alaska. The Palin surge in Alaska has even helped pull embattled Senator Ted Stevens back to a competitive position in his bid for re-election. Presidential polling has also been released this week for Colorado, Florida, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Tonight, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, new polling will be released for Michigan, Idaho, and Wyoming.

Real Clear Politics' average of polls has McCain up by 2.5 percentage points today.

McCain-Palin Team Finds Its Poll Bounce

There is growing evidence of a post-convention bounce in the national polls for the Republican presidential ticket of Sen. John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin. A number of recent polls show them with a lead over Democrats Sens. Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll today has McCain with a 5-percentage-point lead.

John McCain’s support among registered voters increased six percentage points from immediately before the GOP convention to immediately after. That convention bounce leaves him with a five-point lead over Barack Obama in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update, 49% to 44%.

Rasmussen Reports Daily Tracking Poll today has McCain edging to a statistically insignificant one-point lead over Obama.

In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted after the Republican National Convention, McCain attracts 47% of the vote while Obama earns 46%. When "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 48% and Obama 47%.

Last Tuesday, Obama’s bounce peaked with the Democrat enjoying a six-percentage point advantage. Before the two conventions were held, Obama had consistently held a one or two point lead over McCain for most of August.

Real Clear Politics' average of polls has McCain up by 3.2 percentage points.

In a poll released yesterday, self-described likely voters told CBS/Gallup that they favored McCain 54 percent to 44 percent.

Most pollsters attributed McCain's gains to a traditional post-convention bump in popularity, as well as Palin's performance in her speech at the convention, which was well received by social conservatives and evangelicals.

Zogby Poll Sees 4-Point Edge for McCain

Zogby International's latest poll has the McCain-Palin ticket with a four-percentage-point lead over the Obama-Biden ticket.

The McCain/Palin ticket wins 49.7 percent support, compared to 45.9 percent backing for the Obama/Biden ticket, this latest online survey shows. Another 4.4 percent either favored someone else or were unsure, Zogby reported.

Most other polls have a tighter race. Gallup, for instance, shows a two-percentage-point advantage for Obama on its daily tracking poll. There, he is leading 47 percent to 45 percent. It's a lead that has been shrinking since a post-DNC advantage of 50-to-42 percent.

RealClearPolitics has Obama with a 1.8-percentage-point lead, while both Rasmussen Reports and CBS have a dead heat.

There should be a wave of polls released tomorrow that will show the full effect of the Palin nomination on the race.