Rasmussen: 65 Percent of Likely Voters Favor Dumping Congress and Starting Over

Only 65 percent?

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 65% of Likely U.S. Voters say if they had the option next week, they would vote to get rid of the entire Congress and start all over again. Only 20% would opt to keep the entire Congress instead. Fifteen percent (15%) aren’t sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Of course, the Political Class strongly disagrees. While 84% of Mainstream voters would opt to get rid of the entire Congress, 64% of the Political Class would vote instead to keep them all.

Not surprisingly, 82% of Republicans and 78% of unaffiliateds say dump them all. Despite their party’s control of both the House and Senate, Democratic voters are fairly evenly divided: 44% say it’s better to keep the entire Congress, but 38% would prefer to give all the national legislators the heave-ho.

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of all voters have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party after its two years of controlling both the White House and Congress. But 53% view the Democrats unfavorably.

As for the party out of power but knocking on the door, just 29% view Republicans favorably, while 54% hold an unfavorable opinion of them.

Only 61% of Republicans offer a favorable opinion of the GOP, a figure perhaps reflective of the fact that most Republican voters believe their party leaders are out of touch with the base.

Seventy-six percent (76%) of Democrats have a favorable opinion of their party.

Among all voters, just three percent (3%) have a favorable opinion of both parties, while 18% view both unfavorably. Seventy-nine percent (79%) offer mixed reviews.

Rasmussen: Just 4 Pct. of Americans Trust Reporters More Than Themselves on What's Good for America

Do you have trust in reporters? If so, you are one of the few in America, according to a new Rasmussen report released today.

Only four percent of Americans trust reporters' judgment in matters concerning what's good for the country, the survey reports.

Here is the text of its report:

A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 85 percent of U.S. voters trust their own judgment more than the average reporter when it comes to the important issues affecting the nation. Only four percent trust the average reporter more. Eleven percent aren’t sure.

Ninety percent or more of voters ages 40 to 64 trust themselves more than the average reporter.

In part, this is because just 23 percent of all voters say the average reporter is about the same as they are ideologically. Fifty-three percent think the average reporter is more liberal than they are, while 16 percent say more conservative.

Two-out-of-three voters (67 percent) say most reporters when covering a political campaign try to help the candidate they want to win. Just 21 percent say most reporters try to offer unbiased coverage. These findings are identical to those found throughout last fall’s presidential campaign.

Just before last November’s election, for example, 68 percent of voters said most reporters try to help the candidate they want to win, and 51 percent believed they were trying to help Democrat Barack Obama. Just seven percent thought they were trying to help his Republican opponent, John McCain.

Republicans and voters not affiliated with either major party overwhelmingly say most reporters try to help the candidate they favor. Democrats are more closely divided: 32 percent say most reporters try to be unbiased, while 47 percent say they try to help the candidate they want to win.

Similarly, 79 percent of GOP voters and 59 percent of unaffiliateds believe most reporters are more liberal than they are. Democratic voters, are evenly split between those who say most reporters are more liberal or more conservative. A plurality of Democrats (44 percent) say reporters are about the same ideologically.

Three-out-of-four Americans (74 percent) trust their own judgment more than that of the average member of Congress when it comes to economic issues facing the nation.

But then 51 percent of voters say Congress is too liberal while 22 percent hold the opposite view and say it is too conservative. Fourteen percent (14 percent) say the ideological balance of Congress is about right. ...

Forty-three percent (43 percent) of Americans have a favorable opinion of journalists, while 54 percent view them unfavorably. Adults rank them fifth out of a list of nine professions that Rasmussen Reports periodically surveys on. Being a member of Congress is the least respected job.

Rasmussen: Obama's National Lead Grows to Five Points

Rasmussen Reports' daily tracking poll showed a bounce for Sen. Barack Obama as the frontrunner extended his lead to five percentage points. The poll had shown some tightening in the race until this morning.

After showing the candidates just three points apart yesterday, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll on Thursday returns to the range that has defined the race for over a month. It’s Obama by five, 51% to 46%.

This is the 35th straight day that Obama’s support has been between 50% and 52%. With the exception of yesterday, McCain’s support has stayed between 44% and 46% during that stretch.

Rasmussen also released a poll this morning that indicates that people now trust Sen. John McCain more than Obama on the issue of taxes and the economy.

After several weeks of John McCain’s campaign attacks on Barack Obama’s tax plan and idea of “spreading the wealth around”, the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds voters trust McCain more than Obama on taxes, 47% to 45%.

Two weeks ago, Obama had a one point-advantage on the issue of taxes and a month ago, he had a three-point edge. The last time McCain had the advantage on this issue was September 14, just before the collapse of Lehman Brothers started the meltdown on Wall Street (see trends).

Men favor McCain by a 51% to 43% margin when it comes to taxes, while women still trust Obama more, 48% to 43%.

Rasmussen, Gallup Show McCain Gaining as Polls Tighten

Both Rasmussen Reports and Gallup have reported in the past 24 hours tighter national daily tracking polls.

This morning, Rasmussen Reports said that Sen. Barack Obama's national lead is down to three percentage points, 50 percent to 47 percent.

It is the first time in more than a month that Sen. John McCain has been so close.

Prior to today’s update, Obama had been ahead by four-to-eight points every single day for 33 straight days. During that 33-day stretch, Obama’s voter support had stayed between 50% and 52% every day while McCain was in the 44% to 46% range. It will take another day or so to determine whether today’s numbers reflect a lasting change or statistical noise. Two of the last three nights of polling show a closer race than was found in the previous month.

Of course, the problem for McCain is that it is not a national race, rather 51 individual contests for electoral votes. Rasmussen says Obama's electoral lead, when leaning states are included, is 313-174. Pure toss-up states account for the other 51 electoral votes. That is well above the 270 he needs to become the next president of the United States.

Gallup reported yesterday that Obama had a two percentage-point lead, 49-47, among likely voters using its traditional model. Gallup's "traditional" likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections.

In other polls released yesterday, GWU/Battleground had Obama up nationally by three percentage points, 49-46; Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby had Obama up by five percentage points, 49-44; and Diego/Hothline had Obama up by seven percentage points, 49-42.

Rasmussen: Obama 300, McCain 174

Rasmussen Reports projection released this afternoon shows Sen. Barack Obama with a lead of 300-174 electoral votes when leaners are included in the count.

This is the first polling that shows Obama earning 300 electoral votes.

New state polling from Oregon has moved that state from "Leans Democratic" to "Likely Democratic" in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. With this change, Obama leads in states with 255 Electoral College votes while McCain is ahead in states with 163 Electoral College votes. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 300, McCain 174.

Currently, states with 63 Electoral College votes are leaning slightly in one way or the other. Five states with a total of 64 votes -- North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, and Virginia -- are pure toss-ups.

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com has a bleaker picture for Sen. John McCain.

With 25 days to go until the election, Barack Obama is presently at his all-time highs in four of the six national tracking polls (Research 2000, Battleground, Hotline and Zogby) and is just one point off his high in Gallup. He has emerged with clear leads in both Florida and Ohio, where there are several polls out today. He is blowing McCain out in most polls of Pennsylvania and Michigan, and is making states like West Virgina and Georgia competitive.

There's just nothing in there for McCain to hang his hat on. Even a pollster like Strategic Vision, which has generally had a Republican lean this cycle, now has Florida and Ohio going against them (Florida in a big way). Well, OK, maybe they'll hold on to Indiana, although both campaigns' internals likely have the state closer than Rasmussen does.

McCain is getting some criticism for campaigning in Iowa, and for sending Sarah Palin out to West Virginia, but the truth is that their electoral hand is so poor right now that it doesn't much matter in which states they're deciding to bide their time. Remember, any world in which McCain has a chance to win on Election Day is a world that looks very different from this one -- some significant event will have to have occurred to fundamentally change the momentum of the race. We don't know which states might be affected disproportionately by such an event, and so a lot of states are conceivably worth attacking or defending, any of which could potentially become more important in the face of unknown unknowns.

Rasmussen: Obama Up 255-247 in Electoral College

Rasmussen Reports released an update of its Electoral College map. It gives Sen. Barack Obama a slight edge, but does not put him over the magic number of 270.

New state polling from North Carolina has moved that state from from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. With this change, Obama still leads in states with 193 Electoral College votes while McCain is ahead in states with 174 Electoral College votes. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 255, McCain 247.

Currently, states with 124 Electoral College votes are leaning slightly in one way or the other. Five states with a total of 36 votes -- New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Virginia -- are pure toss-ups.

Rasmussen's Electoral Map Almost Identical to 2004

While most of the media is focusing on the national daily tracking polls, which show a slight or statistically insignificant lead for Sen. John McCain, Rasmussen Reports' electoral map paints a picture of a race that is almost identical to 2004.

According to Rasmussen's polling, Sen. Barack Obama has maintain a lead in every state that Sen. John Kerry won in 2004. It also lists only Iowa as a state that is leaning Democrat this time around, and that is based on a poll that was conducted in August before the conventions. In that poll, Obama had a five-percentage-point advantage. Iowa has seven electoral votes.

Rasmussen says McCain is maintaining an edge in most of the states that were won by President George Bush.

McCain now leads in states with 200 Electoral College votes while Obama is ahead in states with 193 Electoral College votes. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 259, McCain 247.

Currently, states with 124 Electoral College votes are leaning slightly in one way or the other. Four states with a total of 32 votes -- Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Virginia -- are pure toss-ups.

Those four states were won by Bush.

McCain Maintains Slight Lead in Daily Tracking Polls

Some of today's daily tracking polls are available. Sen. John McCain is holding on to his slight lead.

Gallup has McCain up 48 percent to 44 percent. This is a one-percentage-point drop from the past two days.

These results, based on Sept. 8-10 polling, show McCain continuing to ride his post-convention bounce. He has held a statistically significant lead over Obama in each of the last four three-day rolling averages.

In addition, since Sept. 5 -- the first night after the Republican National Convention -- he has outpolled Obama in each of the last six individual night's polling. That consistent pattern in the night-to-night data suggests that McCain has a stable lead for now.

This is McCain's best performance since late April and early May, when he was ahead of Obama in eight consecutive Gallup Poll Daily tracking reports, which included a campaign-best six percentage point lead. In March, shortly after he clinched the Republican Party's presidential nomination, McCain was ahead of Obama in 19 consecutive Gallup Poll Daily tracking reports.

The Rasmussen Reports sees a dead heat, with Obama and McCain pulling in 46 percent of the vote. When "leaners" are included, both candidates have 48 percent.

Data released last night shows John McCain up by two in New Mexico, up by double digits in North Dakota, and up by an overwhelming margin in his running mate’s home state of Alaska. The Palin surge in Alaska has even helped pull embattled Senator Ted Stevens back to a competitive position in his bid for re-election. Presidential polling has also been released this week for Colorado, Florida, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Tonight, at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, new polling will be released for Michigan, Idaho, and Wyoming.

Real Clear Politics' average of polls has McCain up by 2.5 percentage points today.

McCain-Palin Team Finds Its Poll Bounce

There is growing evidence of a post-convention bounce in the national polls for the Republican presidential ticket of Sen. John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin. A number of recent polls show them with a lead over Democrats Sens. Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll today has McCain with a 5-percentage-point lead.

John McCain’s support among registered voters increased six percentage points from immediately before the GOP convention to immediately after. That convention bounce leaves him with a five-point lead over Barack Obama in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update, 49% to 44%.

Rasmussen Reports Daily Tracking Poll today has McCain edging to a statistically insignificant one-point lead over Obama.

In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted after the Republican National Convention, McCain attracts 47% of the vote while Obama earns 46%. When "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 48% and Obama 47%.

Last Tuesday, Obama’s bounce peaked with the Democrat enjoying a six-percentage point advantage. Before the two conventions were held, Obama had consistently held a one or two point lead over McCain for most of August.

Real Clear Politics' average of polls has McCain up by 3.2 percentage points.

In a poll released yesterday, self-described likely voters told CBS/Gallup that they favored McCain 54 percent to 44 percent.

Most pollsters attributed McCain's gains to a traditional post-convention bump in popularity, as well as Palin's performance in her speech at the convention, which was well received by social conservatives and evangelicals.

Zogby Poll Sees 4-Point Edge for McCain

Zogby International's latest poll has the McCain-Palin ticket with a four-percentage-point lead over the Obama-Biden ticket.

The McCain/Palin ticket wins 49.7 percent support, compared to 45.9 percent backing for the Obama/Biden ticket, this latest online survey shows. Another 4.4 percent either favored someone else or were unsure, Zogby reported.

Most other polls have a tighter race. Gallup, for instance, shows a two-percentage-point advantage for Obama on its daily tracking poll. There, he is leading 47 percent to 45 percent. It's a lead that has been shrinking since a post-DNC advantage of 50-to-42 percent.

RealClearPolitics has Obama with a 1.8-percentage-point lead, while both Rasmussen Reports and CBS have a dead heat.

There should be a wave of polls released tomorrow that will show the full effect of the Palin nomination on the race.

Rasmussen: Palin More Popular Than Obama, McCain

Sarah Palin may not be popular with some in the national news media, but she is scoring well with Americans. Rasmussen Reports says that she is viewed more favorably than Obama and McCain in its latest poll released today:

A week ago, most Americans had never heard of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. Now, following a Vice Presidential acceptance speech viewed live by more than 40 million people, Palin is viewed favorably by 58% of American voters. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 37% hold an unfavorable view of the self-described hockey mom.

The figures include 40% with a Very Favorable opinion of Palin and 18% with a Very Unfavorable view (full demographic crosstabs are available for Premium Members). Before her acceptance speech, Palin was viewed favorably by 52%. A week ago, 67% had never heard of her.

The new data also shows significant increases in the number who say McCain made the right choice and the number who say Palin is ready to be President. Generally, John McCain’s choice of Palin earns slightly better reviews than Barack Obama’s choice of Joe Biden.

Perhaps most stunning is the fact that Palin’s favorable ratings are now a point higher than either man at the top of the Presidential tickets this year. As of Friday morning, Obama and McCain are each viewed favorably by 57% of voters. Biden is viewed favorably by 48%.