Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Rasmussen's Electoral Map Almost Identical to 2004

While most of the media is focusing on the national daily tracking polls, which show a slight or statistically insignificant lead for Sen. John McCain, Rasmussen Reports' electoral map paints a picture of a race that is almost identical to 2004.

According to Rasmussen's polling, Sen. Barack Obama has maintain a lead in every state that Sen. John Kerry won in 2004. It also lists only Iowa as a state that is leaning Democrat this time around, and that is based on a poll that was conducted in August before the conventions. In that poll, Obama had a five-percentage-point advantage. Iowa has seven electoral votes.

Rasmussen says McCain is maintaining an edge in most of the states that were won by President George Bush.

McCain now leads in states with 200 Electoral College votes while Obama is ahead in states with 193 Electoral College votes. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 259, McCain 247.

Currently, states with 124 Electoral College votes are leaning slightly in one way or the other. Four states with a total of 32 votes -- Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Virginia -- are pure toss-ups.

Those four states were won by Bush.

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