Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Surprise! Obama's Lead Isn't Big Enough

Sen. Barack Obama is the latest news organization to pose the question: If Sen. Obama is so popular and the Republicans are not, why doesn't he have a huge lead?

It's rather simple actually, and David Paul Kuhn does a good job at explaining it. He points out that Obama's strength comes from three groups: the youth, African-Americans and Hispanics. Each of the three groups form a shaky coalition at best.

A couple things about polls. First and foremost, anytime you hear of Obama leading in a national poll keep this in mind: It just doesn't matter. It's not a national election. If anything, Democrats should have longer memories (Does 2000 ring a bell?) It's 51 individual elections on the same day. Heck, a candidate could win just 11 states by one vote and not even be on the ballot elsewhere and win the election.

And another thing, it's August. Most Americans are not focused in on the election. Lets see what the country thinks in late October.

Finally, with all these stories about Obama's lead not being big enough, is there a sense out there that some people in the media are disappointed or scared?

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